Election 2024: Exploring potential impacts to Paid Family and Medical Leave
What could change under a Harris or Trump administration
October 17, 2024
Central to our mission of helping the working world thrive is a commitment to keeping our clients and customers informed and aware of changes to our nation’s evolving Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) landscape. With the 2024 election season in full swing, now is the time to explore possible implications to PFML in terms of potential policy changes on both a national and state-by-state level.
Although many may think of paid leave as a recent trend, the PFML system has a long history, with statutory disability programs dating back to the 1940s. Those original states began to add Paid Family Leave (PFL) to their programs in the early 2000s. Recent growth has been more rapid, with 10 states establishing mandatory Paid Family and Medical programs since 2020.
In the new year, as we prepare for a new Congress and a new administration, the states are charging ahead: Delaware, Maine and Maryland all begin taking contributions in 2025. In 2026, those three states, plus Minnesota, will start paying benefits. That is just what’s already in flight — we can expect legislative activity to emerge from other states interested in enacting PFML programs including New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Hawaii. [1:22–1:56]
Dig deeper — impact of the 2024 election
Check out our in-depth guide for more about the election’s implications on the rapidly evolving PFML landscape.
Leave management and compliance resources
Browse our collection of free resources to build your understanding of leave regulations across the nation.
What a Harris-Walz administration might mean
In line with the Biden administration, the platform calls for a national program. Furthermore, Walz as VP adds a compelling dynamic to consider — Walz is a governor from a PFML state who signed a program into law just last year and ranks PFML at the top of the Democrats' to-do list if they take power. One thing is clear: it’s shaping up to be the most pro-paid-family-leave ticket in history. [2:05–2:30]
If Democrats control the House, Senate and Oval Office, here’s what we might expect to see:
- The FAMILY Act would be a natural starting point
The latest version of the FAMILY Act would allow states with existing paid leave programs to continue. What role the private sector would play in the remaining states would be a major question, and the cost of enacting such a sweeping mandate might mean that other approaches will be considered. [2:40–3:17] - The Building an Economy for Families Act
Part of the Biden administration’s Build Back Better package, the Act called for a government-run PFML benefit program while allowing existing state programs to continue as legacy states. Unlike under the FAMILY Act, employers could seek private coverage to satisfy the requirements and in return receive partial reimbursement. While that Act fell short of passage, it reemerged in late 2021 as part of the infrastructure deal. This time, the duration decreased significantly to four weeks, while the legacy state concept and partial reimbursement remained. This too was struck from the deal, but it could also be a starting point for the PFML debate in 2025. [3:18–4:05]
What a Trump-Vance administration might deliver
On the Republican side, we can look back to 2016. Paid Family Leave was elevated by the Trump administration in ways that we hadn’t previously seen from Republicans, including paid leave for federal workers and sick leave during COVID. And in 2020 President Trump called for a version of PFML during the State of the Union — not a sweeping, national program, but policies including: [4:05–4:35]
- Use of future child tax credits
- Advance of social security benefits
- Family savings accounts
How will this play out in a potentially divided Congress?
Bipartisan efforts in both the House and Senate have been underway for some time. The House Bipartisan PFL working group released its report outlining ideas with bipartisan appeal. These include: [4:46–5:13]
- Public-private partnership paid leave pilot
- Small employer pooling
- Harmonization across states
- Improving the 45S tax credit for paid leave
The Senate is beginning to think about PFML in a bipartisan, bicameral way, too. They released an RFP last year that asked the right questions:
- What should the federal role be in providing paid leave?
- What about the state-based system and benefit programs employers are already providing?
- Can a federal program learn important lessons from the states that have already done this?
- And a major question: how should this be funded? [5:10–5:40]
Recently, the Bipartisan Policy Committee put forth a framework for a voluntary national paid leave minimum standard for multistate employers. This proposal will surely be looked at by policymakers in Congress as it seeks to solve the complexity that multi-state employers face within today’s system. But this takes us to some fundamental questions:
- Is a voluntary, incentive-based program sufficient for Democrats?
- Where does that leave the states still without a program?
Ultimately, a divided government might actually bring both sides to the table and deliver something in the middle. [5:42–6:22]
“Coming to a state near you”
With the east and west coast nearly universally covered and Colorado and Minnesota emerging in the center of the country, it is likely that paid leave of some kind is coming soon to a state near you. In the south and southeast, a voluntary, private PFL model has emerged. And of course, a large swath of the country remains without any paid leave legislation. [6:24–7:01]
Despite the electoral uncertainty, state programs are likely here to stay. With lawmakers in Washington eager to protect what their states have built, the likelihood of doing away with the patchwork of complexity is low. No matter the outcome of the election, expect Paid Family and Medical Leave to be a hot topic in D.C. and state-level legislative bodies heading into 2025 and beyond. [7:02–7:28]